다사다난한 2018한해를 보내고 2019 새해를 앞두고 있습니다. 가장 큰 화두를 꼽아 보자면 ‘무역전쟁’이 아닐까요? 그 전장 가운데, 베트남은 무료 68억만 달러의 흑자의 큰 쾌거를 이루어 냈습니다. 이를 뒤로 하고 2019년, 베트남은 이 호황을 계속 이어나갈 수 있을까요? 월드뱅크, 아시아 개발은행 등 주요 국제 금융기관은 2019년 베트남의 경재성장을 무료 7%수준으로 점치고 있습니다.
계속되는 경재 성장을 배경으로, 배트남은 지금 내적, 외적 성장을 모두 핸들하기 위한 과제를 당면했습니다. 폭발적인 도시화로 도심에 턱없이 부족한 주택공급율, 포스트 차이나로 지목되며 각국의 기업체들의 본격적 이동을 목전에 두고 이를 감당하기 위한 인프라 구축 등. 2019년 한해, 베트남은 또 어떻게 당면한 과제들을 해결해 나갈까요? 또 얼마나 큰 성장 가능성을 보여줄까요?
World Bank는 2018 년 경제성장률을 6.8 % 로 예상했고 이어 2019 년과 2020 년에 각각 6.6 %와 6.5 % 성장할 것이라고 예측했다
In general, several international organizations believe that Vietnamese economy will grow beyond the government’s expectations. For example, the World Bank conducted a fresh forecast that the economy is expected to grow to 6.8% in 2018, and project the future growth in 2019 and 2020 with the rate at 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also anticipated the Vietnam’s growth projected at 6.9 and 6.8 for 2018 and 2019.
According to the GSO, the trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2018 is $6.81 billion, despite the US-China dispute affecting the global demand. The export turnover was estimated at $223.63 billion, up 14.4% on-year; while the total import turnover was $216.82 billion, up 12.4% on-year.
As China’s production costs are growing strongly along with the ongoing China-the US trade war, many businesses (for example: Japan’s Omron, Compal and Inventec, Sony, Samsung, Philips, etc.) have withdrawn and been planning to shift their production facilities out of China. In China, rising costs and domestic competition, at 95.6% and 85.7%, respectively, were viewed as the greatest operational challenges for many foreign businesses currently operating here. Thus, many choose Vietnam as an ideal destination for their new manufacturing bases with lower labor costs and favorable market.
Due to the shortage of office supply (especially in the high-end offices for lease) in the center of HCMC, the leasing costs expect to rise. Rentals have reached at more than $50 per square meter/ month, with $43 – $60 per sqm of Grade A’s rentals and $21 per sqm of Grade B’s rental. The vacancy rates of grades A and B is now at 3% – 5%. According to CBRE, the rental of offices for lease in 2019 will keep increasing before slightly decreasing in 2020 when some new developments are put into operation. The rental for Grade A is expected to increase from 3%-10% in 2019
Lastly, co-working in Vietnam has also become more dominant within the market. Between 2017 and 2018, the co-working office area leased in Vietnam increased from 14,435 to 50,000 sqm, up 233%.
Despite facing some challenges, the real estate market in 2019 is expected to continue on an upward trend. Real estate business ranked second in size since early this year, with total registered capital of $6.5 billion in 87 new registered projects. In HCMC, 65 projects with the total of more than 22,600 units and over 1,000 low-rise buildings were launched to the market in 2019. Affordable housing accounts more than 4,500 units, or 19% of the total. The affordable and social housing segment is under a serious shortage, especially cheap units for leasing. Thus, there is a bright opportunity towards developers in these segments. Lastly, regarding the leasing market, a shortage of supply in recent years in HCMC has emerged more opportunities for developers. Due to this shortage, the rentals for office has increased, leading HCMC to be in the top 40 cities in the world which have the most expensive offices for lease.