2019 새해가 시작된지 벌써 보름이 지났습니다. 2018의 베트남 호황은 계속될까요? 베트남 정부는 2019 경제 목표를 발표 했는데요, GDP성장률 6.8%를 목표하고 있습니다. 수출 교역량은 2018에 비해 8% 증가를 타겟하고 있는데요, FTA를 통한 시장 개방을 통해 최고의 수혜를 누리는 국가중 하나인 베트남인 만큼 불가능한 목표는 아닌것 같습니다.
In 2018, Vietnam achieved an economic growth rate of 7.08% against the original goal of 6.7%. Besides the high growth, the credit growth for 2018 is expected to reach 15% and inflation rate continued to be controlled below the line of 4%. On the other hand, Vietnam still faces some difficulties. Firstly, the rise of salaries higher than the improvement in labor productivity has placed some concerns. However, it’s hard to the Government to control the rise of salaries because the current average rate level remains below the citizens’ living standards. Secondly, banks still face several risks such as high ad debts, low profits, and weak equity. Thirdly, foreign debts also need some special attention from the Government with the estimated rate for 2019 reaching at 49.9% of GDP. Lastly, there is still a trade deficit from domestic economic sector (nearly 10.15% of GDP), while the foreign enterprises enjoyed the big trade surplus.
In 2018, the GDP has hit more than $245 billion. GDP per capita is estimated to be $2,587 for 2018, up $198 against 2017. The economy’s labor productivity has also increased to 5.93%, recording at $4,512 in 2018. Private sector investment has also experienced the rise, expecting to account for 42.4% of total economy investment. Furthermore, the number of newly-established enterprises in 2018 nearly reached 131,300, with total registered capital of $64.26 billion.
For 2019, the National Assembly has set some economic targets:
- GDP: grows 6.6-6.8%
- Total export turnover: up 7-8% on-year
- Trade deficit: below 3% of total export turnover
- CPI: 4%
- Total budget revenue and deficit: $61.36 billion and $9.65 billion respectively
The 4.0 Revolution is penetrating Vietnam and may fundamentally transform the economy. Vietnam also aims to deepen its integration in global and regional value chains through FTA to facilitate technology and know-how transfer. Under the FTAs, it will boost the market access, thus, create an environment for the infusion of Industry 4.0 from developed countries to Vietnam.
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) will help Vietnam to boost trade and economic development. In the early of 2019, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade (EVFTA) will take effect. These FTAs will bring numerous benefits to Vietnam such as increase the FDI, deepen integration in regional and global supply chain, and grow the export market share. A new sector luring FDI beside manufacturing and real estate has also emerged – clean energy (particularly natural gas and wind development).
In general, the new implementation under the Law on Housing and the Law on Real Estate Business (LREB) in 2015 has loosen some restrictions and conditions for foreign investors:
- Foreign investors can acquire 30% of apartment units within 1 apartment or 250 individual residential houses (including villas and terraced houses in 1 ward)
- Foreign individual can own residential property without residency status or any investment in Vietnam
- FIEs can lease real estate for sub-lease
However, there are still some differences in the treatment between local and foreign investors in the real estate sector. To be more specific, under the LREB:
- In Article 11, foreign financiers are not allowed to transfer land use rights in the forms of division of land into plots for sale, but locals can
- In Article 57, foreign developers can only collect up to 50% of the value of the contract for sale and purchase or hire-purchase of realty property while locals is up to 70%
Furthermore, the uncertainty in the definition of overseas ownership or FIEs under the Land Law and Law on Real Estate Business also causes confusion towards foreign investors.
Lastly, there are still some issues in the current laws and the lack of specific legal frameworks to regulate the construction, the term of ownership and management of condotels. Thus, these uncertainties lead to the decrease in the value of the property and in sales as well as the demand.