투모로우 베트남 주간뉴스 입니다. 2019년 첫분기의 탄탄한 수요와 생산을 토대로 베트남의 GDP가 전체 아시아 국가 중 가장 높을 것으로 예상되고 있습니다. 제조가공 분야와 생산유통 분야에서 뛰어난 성장률을 보여주며 잠시 멈춰있던 부동산 프로젝트들도 다시 재개할것으로 보입니다. 베트남 성장률에 많은 영향들을 끼치고 있는 부문들에 어떠한 일들이 일어나고 있는지 한번 알아볼까요?
Fueled by the robust demand and production in the first quarter of 2019, the Vietnamese growth rate is expected to increase 6.79% (according to Asian Development Bank – ADB); Vietnam’s GDP will reach $255bil (up from last year’s $245bil according to Trading Economics). Especially, Vietnam’s expected growth rate for 2019 is said to be higher than that of the whole Southeast Asian region and the whole Asia (according to Focus Economics). Furthermore, according to General Statistics Office (GSO), also in this first quarter, Vietnam’s index for industrial production climbed 9.2%, in which the manufacturing & processing sector expand at 11.1%, and the production & distribution of electricity rise 9.4%.
According to Nguyen Minh Cuong – principal country economist from ADB in Vietnam, it’s important to maintain growth momentum and improve the quality of Vietnam’s growth and sustainability. Especially, agricultural sector should be focused more on building higher value chains. He also said that key impetuses behind the growth rate in the first quarter are strong momentum in manufacturing, agriculture, and services from supply side, and strong domestic consumption and investment from demand side. However, there are also some downside risks of Vietnamese economy such as weaker global trade demand, slowdown of major economies that are key trading partners to Vietnam. Finally, some recommendations for Vietnam to reach its growth target this year are maintaining macroeconomic stability, keeping inflation low, controlling excess liquidity, strengthening fiscal discipline, boosting important reforms (SOE reform, financial and banking reform, etc.), increasing links between foreign-invested and domestic enterprises, etc.
According to Mr. Masakazu from Creed Group, the Vietnamese economy has seen a very positive growth with high demand in the affordable residential and high-end for lease segments. Especially, it attracts huge funds from foreign investors such as Japan, Korea, China, Singapore, and even US, European (Vietnam and Indonesia are 2 key destinations with 90% of investment in Southeast Asia). Also noted that apartment segment with good quality and reasonable price still remains huge and attractive. Therefore, with the prospects of many real estate sectors in Vietnam, it is expected that investment flows will be directed to a wider variety of sectors, including opportunity assets like industrial and logistics properties – said Mr. Powell from Savills Hanoi.
It is a good news that 124 suspended real estate projects can be restarted from this April. If so, there would be less chance of a bubble occurring in the market, and, the more projects launched, the more pressure on prices; thereby balancing the supply and demand – said MacGregor from Savills. Before that, HoREA also proposed to speed up the investigation of more than 100 frozen property projects because the longer the investigation it takes, the more it will cost developers and investors.